NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — XRP price may face a brutal decline in 2025, as rising retail speculation, weakening profitability, and distribution by early holders converge to form a potential local top. While Bitcoin stabilizes near the $80,000 range, on-chain metrics suggest XRP’s recent rally was driven by fragile demand and retail euphoria. That trend now appears to be reversing.

XRP traded around $2.05 on April 3, down more than 40% from its January high of $3.40. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned of a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern, which, if confirmed, could pull the price down to $1.07—a 55% drop.

“Below $1.9, I would not want to own it. H&S projects to $1.07. Don’t shoot the messenger,” Brandt said in an April 1 post.

Retail Frenzy Peaks as Profitability Declines

XRP network activity surged by over 490% in active addresses since the 2022 cycle low, according to Glassnode. Its Realized Cap also nearly doubled—from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion—between December 2024 and February 2025. Over $30 billion of that capital came from investors who bought in within the last six months.

That metric alone highlights a top-heavy market, heavily reliant on newer participants. Profitability metrics have deteriorated. The Realized Loss/Profit Ratio for XRP has been falling steadily since January 2025, reflecting more losses than gains realized on-chain.

The share of XRP’s Realized Cap held by addresses younger than six months rose from 23% to 62.8%, indicating that most of the money now sits with short-term holders. Glassnode noted that these wallets are more likely to exit positions quickly under stress, increasing the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Holder Behavior Mirrors Previous Crash Setups

On-chain data from Glassnode show that the percentage of XRP that was last active more than a year ago plunged during the Dec. 2024 rally. That indicates long-term holders—often considered “smart money”—sold into strength.

XRP NUPL historical performance chart. Source: Glassnode

In 2017, XRP’s dormant supply dropped sharply as the token hit $3.20, followed by a 90% crash. A similar move occurred in 2021, when the price peaked near $1.96 and dropped 75%.

Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric recently entered the “denial” zone, echoing the same euphoric conditions that preceded previous collapses.

$1.90 Breakdown Could Trigger Heavy Selloff

XRP dropped 4.7% last week while Bitcoin pushed to $88,800. Trading volume fell 35% to $2.6 billion, showing clear outflows.

The weekly chart shows a head-and-shoulders breakdown forming. Price is testing the neckline at $1.90. A confirmed close below it could open a path to $1.07, according to Peter Brandt.

XRP also trades near its 50-week EMA at $1.58. A drop below this level could extend losses toward the 200-week EMA near $0.87.

Despite bullish calls from traders like Javon Marks and Stellar Babe, market structure remains weak. Lower highs, falling RSI, and collapsing volume suggest bearish momentum is building.

The XRP price rally that began in late 2024 now shows clear signs of fragility. Retail enthusiasm peaked fast, profit-taking accelerated, and early holders have already exited. A breakdown below $1.90 could open the door to a steep crash in the months ahead, echoing XRP’s past 75% to 90% corrections.